Research and application of common model in the cooperation synthetical forecast IGDSS
Guo Kun · Journal of Communications · 2006
The characters of negotiatory synthetical IGDSS for natural disaster forecasts was analyed.A general model in the forecast IGDSS which takes intelligent decision methods as special forecast experts was presented.The research chooses earthquake forecast as the application background.According to the principles of earthquake forecast and the general model in the negotiatory synthetical forecast IGDSS,the design and the implementation of the model using Bayesian networks as the intelligent decision method in the earthquake forecast IGDSS were mainly demonstrated.An analyzer for Bayesian networks whose inference module was based on improved bucket tree eliminating algorithm was developed.A complete method that using this general model to solve the problems in the earthquake forecast was de- scribed,and this system had been successfully applied in the earthquake administration of Fujian province.