Study on the Prior Information Quantity and Fusion Technology Applied in Inference of Rock Mechanics Parameters with Bayes Method
Dexin Ding · Journal of the China Railway Society · 2011
In view of the multi-source prior information existing in statistical inference of rock mechanics parameters by the Bayes method,the paper divided the prior information into four categories: the numerical analog information,the similar material information,the expert advice and the historical information.Meanwhile,the paper made inference on the average value and the variance of prior information under identical population and different population.In the case that the experimental sample quantity was definite,the paper discussed the most superior data quantity of the prior information,and concluded that,when the experimental samples were 6 in number,the best data quantity of prior information was between 46 and 150,and 50 was proposed.Furthermore,the paper carried out weighted fusion calculation of prior information by example,which indicated that the weighted information fusion technology provided convenience for inference by the Bayes method.