A Research on Optimal Forecasting Model and Its Application Based on Markov Chain
Chen Qi-ming · Journal of Hefei University · 2006
Markov forecasting method has wide applications in forecasting fields.A very important problem of applying this method is how to estimate one-step state transition probability matrix.When the amount of n states of the system by historical data is unknown,the optimal model is given to estimate it in this paper.In the end the optimal forecasting model is applied to forecast the water resource in Changjiang River based on Markov chain.The result shows that the model is effective.