Application in infectious disease forecasting by ARIMA model
Jie Shan · Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics · 2006
Objective The approach and procedure to fit time series with ARIMA models are discussed briefly. The application to forecast hepatitis B is given to help infectious diseases forecasting system. Methods Proper ARIMA model is obtained with SPSS system and the effectiveness is evaluated. Results The error of prediction to hepatitis B is around 15%, which show a satisfactory effectiveness. Conclusion It is both necessary and practical to apply the approach of ARIMA model in fitting time series to predict hepatitis B with a short lead time.