SPA-Markov Chain Model for Evaluating and Forecasting Urban Buried Gas Pipeline Risk
Jiaxi Liu · Zhongguo anquan kexue xuebao · 2012
For the sake of evaluating dynamically and forecasting the risk of an urban buried gas pipeline system,and providing more subjective and safe management grounds for manager,the SPA and Markov chain were got together,and used for evaluating dynamically urban buried gas pipeline system.Seeing that the system had a lot of uncertainties and a dynamic state characteristic,a new dynamic method for evaluating and forecasting the risk of the system was adopted,that was a combination of state evaluation and forecast analysis.With this method,the danger grade of the system was determined according to the contact number,and the final risk level of the system was forecasted by using the ergodic property of the Markov chain and a combination of set pair state potential with the result.