Scenario inference-based dynamic GERT network model for evolution of earthquake disasters
Zujun Ma · Ziran zaihai xuebao · 2013
After an earthquake,all kinds of primary disasters,derived disasters and secondary disasters couple and evolve mutually or together.The coupling and evolution process is often accompanied by different intensity of rescue and relief actions.Accurately describing the process is of great significance to deal with and relieve the disaster situation.Based on classical GERT(Graph Evaluation and Review Technique) network model and scenario inference,a dynamic GERT network model for the evolution of earthquake disaster was developed herein.The problems of qualitative and quantitative description of mutual coupling relationships in earthquake disasters,and dynamic correction and optimization of the network model are well solved.The approach presents a new idea for the prediction and analysis of earthquake disaster evolution.