ARMA forecasting model of Baltic freight index
Zhenghong Li · Journal of Shanghai, Maritime University · 2004
The fluctuation nature and forecasting model of Baltic freight index(BFI)are researched. Firstly the power function model is proved to match the long-term fluctuation of BFI through analysis of the tendency. Then the seasonal index of every month is obtained by using the statistics tool to analyze the seasonal fluctuation of BFI. Finally ARMA forecasting model is set up after removing the long-term tendency and the seasonal fluctuation. The analysis result proves that the ARMA forecasting model can forecast the BFI well, especially in the case of one-step forecasting.