A Time Series Forecasting of Food-grain Consumption Per Capita in China
Chang Ping-fan · Shanxi nongye daxue xuebao. Ziran kexue ban · 2005
Forecasting of grain consumption is important theoretical foundation for arranging grain production, adjusting grain plant structure, making strategy of grain security and agricultural sustainable development. Time series forecasting models of food-grain consumption per capita in China were scanned and selected by using SPSS, and were built based on the correlative relationship between quantity of consumption and time. Research results and statistical indexes indicated that the construction of models were successful, and the forecasting within the data obtained was relatively precise, whether the result of forecasting for the future was reliable or not, however, much depended on the influence of many external factors such as consumer's taste, grain price as well as test of the time and reality.