New Combined Forecasting Model Applied in Air Traffic Flow Forecast
Yuting Wang · Journal of Civil Aviation University of China · 2009
The quick development of civil aviation transport industry makes the air traffic flow increase rapidly.How to forecast the future traffic volume accurately is the key issue of the efficient allocation of industry resources and reasonable disposition strategy.So a lot of domestic and foreign experts do research on the forecast of air traffic flow and put forward a number of models and methods.This paper proposes and constructs a new combined forecasting model applied in civil aviation industry,considering the defects of the current air traffic flow forecasting.This model takes the results of trend extrapolation as the composite time variables of multiple tegression analysis.Referring to the principle component analysis,the model successfully combines the composite time variables and the other effect factor variables,then establishes a new combined forecasting model of trend extrapolation and multiple regression analysis.Taking the example of SHA terminal control area,by means of SPSS(statistical product and service solutions) soft,the check result of forecasting precision which is compared to the traditional forecasting models verifies the effectiveness of the new combination forecasting model proposed.