Moderate size of the Chinese foreign debt predicted using artificial neural network approach
Zhanhui Chen · Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology) · 2002
The moderate size of the Chinese foreign debt was analyzed using a new algorithm for general nonlinear equations incorporating the BP neural network method and common ways to solve nonlinear equations, like the Wegstein method, the Broyden method, etc. The algorithm was used in a macroeconomic model of the Chinese foreign debt to build an ANN model of the Chinese foreign debt. The model was used to analyze the simulation results of different management modes (planning and residual modes) and the term structure of the foreign debt. The test period results are better than those of the econometric method. The results suggest that the upper limit of foreign debt loans should be 25 billion dollars with the planning mode and payment of the foreign debt within 3 years should be avoided.