Short-time Traffic Forecast Based on Chaos Theory
YI Ruo-chen · Traffic & Transportation · 2010
With the development of intelligent traffic,real-time dynamic traffic assignment(DTA) has become one of the most popular researches.Short-time traffic forecast is the key technology of real-time dynamic traffic assignment,and plays an important role in traffic control and navigation.After analyzing data of traffic flow,the paper addresses that transportation system is dissipative and chaos exists in traffic status.Therefore,phase space reconstruction and multivariate local method is employed to generate and predict time series.The proposed method has high accuracy in two to five minutes.