RESEARCH FOR EVALUATING WATER SHORTAGE RISK BASED ON SIMILAR CLOUD METHOD IN JIANGSU PROVINCE
Yanbin Gong · Changjiang liuyu ziyuan yu huanjing · 2015
In order to monitor and evaluate the risk of water shortage and realize the sustainable utilization of water resources,the comprehensive evaluation model based on similar cloud model and entropy weight theory was presented to solve the fuzzy and random problem in water shortage risk.The cloud model is a mathematical representation of fuzziness and randomness.It can realize the transformation between the qualitatives when the fuzziness and randomness are integrated together.It has strong robustness for the uncertain question.The method keeps the random and fuzzy in evaluation.Using existing theoretical approaches,a total of five assessment indexes were considered,such as the risk rate,weakness,possibility of recovery,period for reappear and risk level.The entropy weight method was used to compute the evaluation factors' weights,and the normal cloud model was used to describe the grade of water shortage risk.Based on the combined fuzzy similarity measure,a new method to measure the similarity of normal cloud model was proposed.By comparing the value of entropy weight and similar cloud between the three basins and the risk grade,the comprehensive evaluation model based on the entropy weight and similar cloud was constructed.Moreover,the method was compared with the entropy fuzzy comprehensive(EFC)method,the set pair analysis and the variable fuzzy sets(SPA-VFS)method.The application to analysis of three basins(Huaihe River Basin,Yangtze River Basin and Taihu Basin)in Jiangsu Province shows that the proposed model is feasible and the result indicates the water shortage risk level in Huaihe River Basin will be high in 2010,so that measures for risk management must be adopted in the near future.A numerical example shows the new method is simple,feasible and reasonable,and it can overcome some of the shortcomings of the existing methods.