Based on Risk-Analysis' Estimating Method of Project's Duration
Li Shu · Systems Engineering · 2001
This paper presents a estimating method of project's duration. It analyzes risk factors that effect project's duration firstly, then determined their distribution and effects on every activities, based on that, It calculates duration of project. By use of numberless simulation, we can sates project's duration's probability graph and expect duration.This way's accuracy is higher than traditional PERT model.It also may conveniently get every factor's affect. This method provides a sciential tool for controlling major risk.