Fuzzy Forecasting Research on the Quantities of Inbound Containers and Epidemic Containers of Dayaowan
Zhang Li-me · Shuxue de shijian yu renshi · 2014
As the main loading tool of international shipping and logistics industry container is of main object for entry statistics and for inspecting and quarantining The time series of quantity of containers obtained according to certain law have certain statistics law and have great randomness.Based on the method of fuzzy time series,through constructing the universe of discourse,defining the fuzzy sets on the universe of discourse and giving the multiple computational rules,the quantity of inbound container,the quantity of epidemic container and the ratio of the quantity of epidemic container to the quantity of inbound container of Dayaowan from June 2005 to October 2012 are analyzed and forecast in the paper.The comparison from predictive values to the actual values show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.The mean absolute error and the mean absolute percentage error from predictive value to the actual value reveal the fuzziness of the time series themselves and the rationality of the proposed model integrally.