Human errors and their effects on the dam risk ratio
Ming Zhang · Hydro-Science and Engineering · 2010
Human errors have some important impacts on the dam safety.During the different stages of dam design,construction and runtime,any negligible human errors can cause dam safety descending.In regard to dam safety management,two kinds of probability simulation methods of success-failure human error and continuous human error are put forward.The Beta distribution of Bernoulli process is adopted to simulate the success-failure type human error.And for the continuous one,the total probability theorem is used to simulate it by differentiating the inherent randomness of the variables and the corresponding variability caused by human errors.The analysis of the effect of human errors on the dam safety shows that the probability simulation methods for the human errors have their practicability and rationality to some extent.