A Chaos Theory-Based Model of Short-Time Forecasting of Traffic Flow
Yulong Pei · Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology · 2006
Traffic flow forecasting is the basis of feasibility analysis of traffic system, traffic design,traffic management and control,in which the short-time forecasting is more difficult.The existing traffic forecasting models are analyzed,and a new short-time forecasting model based on chaos theory is developed.The Largest Lyapunov Exponent of flow rate series is estimated with the improved Wolf arithmetic method based on small data sets.A short-time forecasting model is developed from the one-dimensional forecasting mode based on the Largest Lyapunov Exponent.The forecasting precision of the improved model is relatively high and the model has a wide potential in traffic control and inducement in ITS field.