A Time Series Forecasting of the Trend of Total Food-grain Consumption in China
Huo Xin-lin · Shanxi nongye daxue xuebao. Ziran kexue ban · 2004
Forecasting of grain consumption is important theoretical foundation for arranging grain production,adjusting grain plant structure,making strategy of grain security and agricultural sustainable development.Time series forecasting models of total food-grain consumption in China were selected by using SPSS, and were built based on the correlative relationship between quantity of consumption and time. Research results and statistical indexes indicated that the construction of forecasting models are successful, and the forecasting within the data obtained is relatively precise ;however,much depends on the influence of many external factors such as growth rate of population,grain output, per capita consumption etc, as well as test of the time and reality.