Cloud Model-based Simulation of System Risk of Marine Traffic by Monte Carlo Algorithm
Hao Zhang · Zhongguo anquan kexue xuebao · 2012
In order to expand data samples in the MTS and promote the research on systemic risk assessment,it is essential to study the simulation model and numerical algorithm in MTS risk assessment.Cloud model was introduced to simulate risk in place of probability distribution model owing to the existing uncertainty including fuzziness and randomness in risk event.On the basis of the parameters of the original cloud without certainty,droplets of risk cloud in MTS were presented,so as to effectively increase data samples about risk events of MTS.The characteristics of MTS systemic risk were described accurately and analysesd under the condition of risk numerical simulation.After the validation test,the coefficient of variation from the data based on cloud model Monte Carlo simulation was more stable than ones from the simulation by logarithm normal distribution model.The simulation results under the cloud model were more accurately close to the characteristics of the original sample.The problem of quantization of information of fuzziness and randomness about risk was solved.