Estimation of risk joint probability to cost and schedule integration based on joint probability distribution theory
Jia Zi-jun · Journal of systems engineering · 2009
The meaning of the risk joint probability to cost and schedule is the probability that the project plan couldn't complete under the integrated budget and schedule plan.An integration method combined network planning technique,Monte Carlo simulation technique and joint probability distribution theory,is presented in this paper.First,the simulation models for the project with stochastic cost and duration in activities are set up.Then,the simulation outputs of cost and schedule are analyzed by using statistical analysis techniques.And the marginal probability distribution functions and the conditional probability distribution functions about cost and schedule are formed by using regression analysis method.Further,estimation of the joint cumulative probability distribution and the joint risk probability distribution about cost and schedule integration are acquired.Finally,a network project plan example with stochastic cost and duration in activities is made by the integration method in detail,and high precision estimation outcomes are gained.