Situation assessment model of civil aviation safety based on neural network and its simulation
Changchun Zhou · Journal of Safety Science and Technology · 2011
The prediction and assessment of aviation incidents,incident and catastrophe rates are the key of aviation safety situation assessment,provided for managers with aviation safety situation and future trend of change in information to make scientific decisions,which are very important to prevent accidents.The civil aviation safety situation assessment model is established from analysis and selection the factors that affect the situation of civil aviation safety.There are two neural network models which are BP and Elman types applied.Based on aviation safety situation assessment results between 2008 and 2010,the overall security situation is secure,but the civil aircraft incident are not few.In 2009,civil aviation safety situation is relatively severe so as to pay close attention to civil aircraft accidents in 2010 and hope managers to take active measures to prevent accidents.The results show that the model based on neural network for aviation safety situation assessment is feasible which is an effective tool for aviation safety situation assessment.