Application of Markov model in forecasting of malaria incidence in Hefei city
Wen-jing FAN · Zhongguo redai yixue · 2013
Objective To predict the yearly incidence trend of malaria in Hefei city by using the Markov model and provide scientific evidence for making malaria control measures.Methods The Markov model based on the yearly malaria incidence of Hefei city from 1990 to 2010 was constructed with Excel software.The incidence rates of malaria in 21 years were divided into 4 states and Markov model was applied on the prediction of epidemic trend of malaria in Hefei city in the next 2 years.Results The morbidity rates of malaria will be within 1-3.5/100000 in Hefei city from 2011 to 2012.Conclusion The findings shows that Markov model seems not be an appropriate model for prediction of the future incidence trend of malaria in Hefei city.In 2011,the actual incidence rates was 0.13/ 100000,and zero in 2012.The prediction is not coincident with the actual situation.