Analysis of relationship between fluctuation coefficient and robust effect of flood forecast
Weimin Bao · Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering · 2009
Input flow of reservoir,whose hydrograph is always like a saw-tooth wave,is usually calculated by the observed water stage,out flow and stage-storage relation curve,the fluctuation coefficient is introduced to reflect the fluctuation degree. Because of the water observation errors,the coarse errors which may reduce the effects of real-time correction in flood forecasting,are often caused. The robust real-time flood forecasting which combines the traditional flood forecasting with robust theory and robust estimation method,can resist the non-normal information effectively. Analysis results of ten reservoir basins show that the robust effect is linear correlated to the fluctuation coefficient,the larger fluctuation coefficient is,the more remarkable robust effect is.