Realization of GMPC Model in Incident Prediction
Bin Wangxin · Science and Technology of West China · 2014
Research on incident prediction data has great impact on aviation safety management,application of a scientific algorithm even makes the key point.Based on dataofa decade from2003~2012 incident and dataofoperati ng aircraft,combined with advantagesofGM(1,1) model and Markova model,GMPC modelwasbuilt up and programm ed.Thiscanprovidedecisionbasistoaviation safety management.Practice indicates that this model can predict accurately one or two year incident data in future,so it can be a short-term prediction in aviation safety tendency.