Forecast and Simulation of Adversary Action Based on Possibilistic Decision Method
Shaojun Liu · Jisuanji fangzhen · 2013
The high-level commander training construction of military operation require the CGF’s intellectual ability of forecasting,which is a process of thinking and decision-making just like the enemy.The possibilistic method is expected to be a powerful means to solve the decision-making and forecasting problem under the conditions that the knowledge is far from complete.Starting from the basic definition of the theory of probability and the axiom system and combined with the principle of dynamic programming,an optimization theorem of possibilistic decision was proposed and proved,as a result,the realization algorithm of multi-step decision was brought out.Finally,the possibilistic decision method was applied to an example of adversary action forecast in crisis with simulation to show how the method works and where is the superiority.