Distribution network reliability assessment based on Bayesian network and blind number
Chen Jiqu · Dianli zidonghua shebei · 2015
Aiming at the original parameter uncertainty of reliability assessment,a distribution network reliability assessment method based on Bayesian network method and blind number is proposed,which adopts the blind number theory to deal with the original parameter uncertainty and takes the reliability parameters and indices as blind numbers. Compared with the conventional reliability assessment methods,the proposed method can obtain the range of load or system reliability index and the corresponding credibility by the simplified blind number calculation to reflect the comprehensive influence of parameter uncertainty on the reliability index,and can also identify the weak parts of distribution network by the specific bidirection reasoning of Bayesian network. Case analysis verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.