Application of Bayes Net Analysis in Calculation of Corrosion Failure Probability
Tan Li-wen · Process Equipment & Piping · 2009
The analysis of corrosion occurred in one natural gas pipeline was carried out so that 23 factors relevant to corrosion failure were determined.Based on Bayes net analytical principle,every failure factor is a sub - node in Bayes net,and the corrosion failure of the pipeline is the root node in the net.With the probabilistic relationship between each sub - node,the occurrence probability of the sub - node can be determined.The probabilistic statistical relation among sub - nodes was analyzed,and the probabilistic distribution was simplified by using the property of conditional independence,the corrosion failure probability of the pipeline was,then,can be finally obtained.It has been shown that with the use of Bayes net to access corroded natural gas pipeline,the result can be utilized to guide the maintenance of gas pipeline,so that the risk in the performance of the pipeline can be decreased.