Multi-objective Optimal Combination Forecast of Post-construction Settlement of Embankment
Tianwen Lai · Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University · 2009
The post-construction settlement prediction is an important problem in the roadbed construction.Because the normal prediction methods based on observation data have different applicabilities and disadvantages,the combination forecast can synthetically utilize the information provided by different methods to improve the precision of prediction.Optimal combination forecasting method is modeled on the highest of the forecast precision and the best forecasting precision stability.Based on observed data from the second line of Lanzhou-Wuwei Railway,the fitting precision and forecasting precision that are made from Xing-ye' method,the exponent method,the hyperbolic method and optimal combination forecasting method are analyzed.This case not only illustrates the optimal combination forecasting method has the higher fitting precision and forecasting precision and their stability,but also demonstrates it is feasible that the adaptability of every single forecasting method is evaluated by weight coefficient.