Precipitation Predicting Model Based on Improved Markov Chain
Long Wang · Journal of University of Jinan · 2009
Basing on the precipitation data from 1956 to 1999,and taking the means and standard deviation of information series as the classification standard of precipitation,the past 44 years are classified into five classes according to the precipitation data,i.e.,water-logging year,weak water-logging year,normal year,weak drought year,and drought year.The precipitation of Dongchuan district of Kunming in 2000 is predicted and analyzed using the weighted Markov chain and transition probability.The level characteristics value of fuzzy sets is used to predict the concrete value of precipitation.It is concluded that the result of prediction by the present method agrees with the reality.