The AIDS curative effect synthetic evaluation and forecasts with ARIMA model
WU Chao-bia · Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics · 2007
Objective To synthetic evaluate AIDS curative effect and discuss ARIMA model in its forecast application.Methods Using a group of data for sample that is from ACTG clinical test group 193A research,and log(cd4+1)and treatment expense to be synthetic evaluation indices,we establish ARIMA model and make 15 week-long extension forecasts.Results ARIMA(3,1,1)model has the extremely good fitting and forecast effect.The treatment expense causes to under-developed areas the curative effect obvious drop tendency;probably will drop in the 45th week later straight line,might stop the treating.Conclusion It is both necessary and practical to apply ARIMA models to predict AIDS curative effect.