Application research of cloud model theory in month electricity consumption forecasting
Zhigang Lu · Power Demand Side Management · 2008
Against the troublesome problems in electricity consumption forecasting that are unable to take the variety and duration time of temperature into account,a new method based on cloud model and proportion method is proposed to do month electricity consumption forecasting. Considering the influence of economic factors in traditional forecasting models,the new method calculates the subordination degree to describe the variety and duration time of the temperature by cloud regulation generators. At the same time, the cloud model qualitative concept digital eigenvalue of each month’s electricity consumption proportion is calculated with the help of reverse cloud generator. This paper does the month electricity consumption forecasting research based on the subordination degree and the evaluation. The simulation result displays that the forecasting model taking the aspect of temperature into account is more comprehensive and accurate.