Real Option Pricing Method Based on Cloud Model
Zigang Zhang · Systems Engineering · 2008
Real option usually assumes that the present values of expected cash flows and expected costs are difinite values.Actually,there is a high uncertainty in venture investment,so this assumption is unrealistic and many researchers apply fuzzy method to solve the problem.Cloud models can represent the fuzziness and randomness and their relations of uncertain concepts.Based on before researches,this paper uses a cloud models to describe the present values of expected cash flows and expected costs,in which a new real option calculation method is obtained.Finally,a numerical example is presented to test the feasibility of this method.