Application of ARIMA-ANN model in the Prediction of Medium and Long-term Runoff
FU Xin-zhong · Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering · 2009
Based on the time series forecasting model and BP neural network,this paper put forward a new combination forecasting method.A new hybrid approach combined by BP Neural Network and ARIMA model were proposed which were constructed by a three-layer structure.This hybrid approach obtained the absolute errors by ARIMA model firstly,then uses the past 5 years data as input values,and uses the BP neural network to simulate the result by a rolling method,finally established the prediction model by the ARIMA with ANN.By assisting the softs of SPSS13 and Matlab7,this paper applies the combination model to predict the annual runoff of the Kaqun hydrological station.The result indicates that the proposed model has higher forecasting accuracy and more tolerant ability.It is an effective model for runoff prediction of medium to long-term.