Study on Expected Headway Model Based on Chaos Dynamics
DU Zhen-cai · Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development · 2005
A quantitative analysis is conducted on the chaos phenomenon in the car-following fleet based on the headway kept by the two consecutive vehicles and the follow-up vehicle's speed.By studying the microscopic characteristics of the vehicles fleet in the process of stimuli and reaction it is proved that there exists a chaos occurrence in the car-following fleet.In order to reasonably model the expected headway in traffic stream four expected ideal headway models have been mathematically proposed in this paper.Then,the Rossler chaos attractors are introduced in the four models in order to choose the models that can best describe the actual traffic characteristics.The calibration and validation procedures are conducted using high accurate GPS equipped vehicles to collect data from expressways.Based on the results it can be seen that modified headway models can best reflect the car-following characteristics of the real traffic flow.