Empirical Test Research on BP Neural Network Model Under the Cash Flow Early Warning Indicators Perspective——Statistics based on ST companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2007 to 2012
Lei Zhen-hu · Journal of University of South China · 2014
The cash flow early warning indicators system is established according to the current research dynamic at home and abroad and the financial crisis early warning perspective. 79 ST and 79 non-ST companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from2007 to 2012 are selected as the training example. The 3-year statistics of the training example before they are ST are used to select indicators. The prediction result of BP neural network model is compared to the truth according to the selected indicators and BP neural network model. The research concludes : the prediction accuracy of BP neural network model declines in turn from t-1 year to t-3 year.The accuracy of training example of the financial warning model of the t-3 year still reaches to 77. 85%. The accuracy of test example also reaches to 78%.