Statistical Test for Prediction Methods Efficiency
Jiakun Liu · Journal of Tianjin University Science and Technology · 2004
Different methods of forecasting natural disasters lead to different results.Aiming at the problem of forecast methods efficiency, this paper takes earthquake prediction as an example and makes statistical hypothesis H_0,in which forecast method is independent of earthquake fluid.Proper statistics variables were constructed and statistics test method was used to assess whether a prediction method is “efficient”.The probability of getting false result by this method was proved to be less than the given value α(α=15%).Thus a statistical approach to judging the efficiency of forecast methods was established.