System Theory Based Gun Ammunition Consumption Prediction Correction Method
Chen Ju · Command Control & Simulation · 2014
Ammunition support demand prediction is a complex problem which involved all kinds of intertwined factors.Based on system theory and its derived methods such as ISM( Interpretative Structure Method),SD( System Dynamic),a gun-ammunition-consumption-prediction-correction-method is proposed in this paper. Under the circumstance for predicting the undermanned ammunition consumption of joint war,the ammunition system is analyzed by ISM for constructing the structure of the factors and its relations which affects ammunition support demand systematically. and then by SD,prediction problem under controllability condition is discussed. After analyzing experiment data,some useful conclusion can be got. As a conclusion,this method is validated by a history example,and the results shows the accuracy of prediction will be enhanced by this method,disadvantage of the Task Quantum method will be solved either. It is a new way of thinking about ammunition prediction.