Full Life-Cycle Cost Estimation of Substation Project Based on Blind Number Theory
Xiang Li · Power System Technology · 2010
There are many uncertain impacting factors in full life-cycle cost (LCC) of substation, and the blind information affects the accuracy of estimation result of LCC. To quantitatively analyze the affects of blind information on substation cost the blind number theory is led in and a blind number model of full life-cycle cost of substation is built. Taking a certain substation for example, its full life-cycle cost is estimated by qualitative expert forecasting method. The estimation results show that comparing with traditional deterministic model, possible distribution intervals of full life-cycle of substation can be attained by blind number model, in addition, the confidence levels of different intervals can also be obtained, and it makes the estimation results more reasonable and creditable. The proposed method is available for reference to cost optimization of substation project.