Prediction of Dam's Early Deformation Based on Time Series
Zhu Guo-cheng · Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering · 2012
The dam′s early deformation is a complex process containing the known and unknown factors for uncertainty.The settlement deformation calculation and forecasting play an important role in reservoir operation and management.Here,according to the subsidence curves of non-stationary characteristics for dam deformation,the time series theory is used for modelling to predict the deformation of dam monitoring points and compared with the measured data.The final results show that the ARIMA model can better describe the change rule of monitoring points.The forecasting accuracy of the ARIMA is better than that of GM model,so the ARIMA model is fitter to be used in practice.