Multi-stage Reliability Assessment of Missile Based on MCMC
Zhu Huichua · Ship Electronic Engineering · 2015
The reliability evaluation model based on fuzzy theory,Bayesian analysis method and MCMC is established for solving the problem of the small sample of missile reliability and mulit-stage during the development of the missile.According to the expert information and fuzzy theory,the prior distribution of reliability is determined.The posterior distribution is given by making use of the Bayesian formula.The reliability assessment of the every stage of the missile equipment is verified by sampling simulation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Gibbs Calculate method.Finally,an example is used to illustrate the effective of the model,and provide a new method for the reliability-growth assessment.