Time sequence extrapolative analysis model of short-term forecasting of U.S. general aviation accidents
Qin Peng-hui · Applied Mechanics and Materials · 2011
The present article is inclined to introduce an innovated time sequence extrapolative analysis model of short-term forecast of U.S.general aviation accidents based on the system safety engineering analogical theory.As is known,the study of general aviation accident statistics and accident-finding trends and their causes is of great significance for durative safety operation of China general aviation flight in the future.Since the annual accident statistics of U.S. general aviation can be obtained from the network of National Transportation Safety Board of U.S.in accordance with the accident-incidence rate and actual accident times during the period of 1990-2009 and each phase of flight in the period of 1999-2005,it is possible to analyze and work out the causes and the flying accident-incidence regularities from the annual accident statistics by applying the secondary exponential smoothing method.Moreover,since the value of exponential smoothing coefficient can be ascertained by the aid of the progression dichotomous searching method,the actual value of the exponential smoothing coefficient can be found out as 0.350 501 25 with regard to the first group of data and 0.4 with regard of another group of data.Thus,the accident number in 1999 can be estimated as the smooth initial accident number of the first group.Furthermore, since the smooth initial number can be deduced by the method of weighted-average in the other data group,the time sequence extrapolative analysis model of U.S.general aviation accident forecasting set up can thus be set up with the improvement of the forecasting precision of the analysis model.The forecasting results gained by using the said analysis model indicate that the correlative error tends to be minor and the forecasting accurate rate proved to be perfect if the forecasting was limited to the short-term basis despite the fluctuation of the forecasting accuracy with the difference of the flying phases and maneuver techniques.And,finally,the chief cause of decline of the aviation accident-incidence rate in the U.S.should be attributed to the improved Federal Aviation Administration by using.Small Aircraft Transportation System equipped in the airports and requirement of general-purpose aircraft with auto-pilot instruments and all-weather flight.And,therefore,some accidents that took place in U.S.general aviation can be attributed to the poor maneuver-skills of many pilots and their inefficiency of flight-skill training.