Agricultural Drought Prediction Model Based on Information-diffusing Approximate Reasoning
Fang Guo · Journal of North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power · 2011
The information-diffusing approximate reasoning technology is applied to the agricultural drought prediction.The information-diffusing approximate reasoning can convert sample points into the fuzzy set,and partially offsets information gaps caused by the incompleteness of the data as well as the contradictory mode in the sample into a compatible mode.By the information-diffusing approximate reasoning model,the agricultural production in future years is forecasted using the historical disaster series of agricultural drought,and the extent of a yield reduction is estimated.Examples show that the model can collect the data sufficiently in small sample conditions and preferably predict the future drought.Therefore the model has high practical value.