Uncertainty Analysis for Construction Diversion Based on System Simulation
Zhang Fa-yu · Journal of Tianjin University Science and Technology · 2006
As Monte-Carlo computer simulation method is applied to system risk analysis of construction diversion,important changes are made in the limitation of conventional methods which only consider single hydrological uncertainty and assume hydraulic parameters to be fixed values.Based on multiple uncertain factors including hydrological and hydraulic uncertainties,the simulation makes upstream water level uncertain.For this reason,upstream water level is calculated through establishing mathematical model which can simulate system operation during construction diversion.The minimum running times in the simulation are ascertained by using central limit theorem,and then the experiential accumulative curve and probability distribution curve of the upstream water level are obtained by analyzing the statistical data. Finally the system failure probability at the designed water level is defined to reflect risk probability,and according to the probability distribution curve,the risk probability under current criteria of river diversion is determined.All these will provide technological support for construction diversion decision.