Modeling method and application of emergent event chain based on Bayesian network
Jiangnan Qiu, Liu Li-li, Leilei Dong · Journal of systems engineering · 2012
According to the characteristics of emergent events which are highly uncertain,systematization and cascading,the paper abstracted emergent events as a three-layer structure model,including input,state and output,based on system theory.A single event Bayesian network for uncertain emergent event was put forward. Then,a combination method for a succession of associated Bayesian networks of single event was proposed, on the basis of which,a Bayesian network of emergent event chain was built.Finally,support for feasibility and validity of the model proposed was provided by applying it to an example of a typhoon-rainstorm-flood emergent event chain.