Time-dependent parameter gray model TGM-AR for prediction of surface settlement of tunnels
Bing Zhang · Journal of Hohai University · 2007
For extraction of trend items,the stepwise regression method is troublesome,and the gray model is of low precision of prediction.Based on the gray and time-dependent characteristics of the gray prediction system and the deformation rules of the deformation body,the time-dependent parameters a(t) and b(t) and the gray theory were applied to time series modeling,and a time-dependent parameter gray model TGM-AR was developed.The model TGM-AR with a(t) and b(t) was used for extraction of the trend item,and the time series model was for extraction of the random parts.The application of the model to analysis and prediction of the ground surface settlement of tunnels shows that the prediction precision is high and the physical significance of the trend item is explicit.