CREAM-based Reliability Analysis on OOW Avoiding Danger at Sea
Shanjie Zhang · Zhongguo anquan kexue xuebao · 2012
In order to study the reliability of OOW avoiding danger at sea,a CREAM-based reliability analysis was established.The ideal serial model of OOW's avoidance action was refined by task and action decomposition so as to identify all sub-tasks of each action.Probabilities of 4 control modes were obtained based on experts' evaluation of CPCs(Common performance conditions),reconstructed Whitenization Weight Function and Bayesian-CREAM network.The probabilities were used to correct the human basic error probability.The value of OOW's error probability was calculated with the help of reliability serials and parallel principle.Following a case study,the probability of OOW's error,about 10-5 magnitude,was found.