Application of time-series model to predict groundwater regime
Ping Li · Journal of Hydraulic Engineering · 2005
The time-series analysis theory is applied to analyze and forecast the dynamic variation of groundwater in west part of Jilin Province,China.First,the trend component of groundwater level dynamic variation is picked up by polynomial calibration,the periodic component is extracted by spectrum analysis and the stochastic component is simulated by using autoregression(AR) model.Finally,a forecasting model is established through linear superposition of these components and the method for verifying the accuracy of the model is suggested.The analysis of this model shows that there are two major periods in the variation of groundwater level in this area by which seasonal and secular variation of groundwater level is revealed. The prediction for years after 2002 indicates that a continuing decline of groundwater level exists in some district of this area,which must be controlled in time.