Model of Traffic Volume Forecasting Based on Fuzzy GMDH Network
Chen Sen-fa · Journal of Nanjing University of Science and Technology · 2010
In view of the undesirable forecasting results from the conventional group method of data handling(GMDH) network modeling that uses the least square method to identify coefficients,this paper introduces a fuzzy reasoning model into the GMDH network to take the place of partial descriptions of the traditional GMDH network,i.e.the integral binary quadratic polynomial forms.Based on the GMDH network,this paper proposes a model of traffic volume forecasting based on a fuzzy GMDH network.Simulation results show that the average relative error of the new model prediction is only 2.31%,and it is less than 3.35% which is the average relative error of prediction of the traditional GMDH network.The new model is proved effective.