A Method for Multi-stage Stochastic Multi-criteria Decision Making Concerning Prospect Theory
Hao Jing-jin · Zhongguo guanli kexue · 2015
In practical decision-making problem,the risk preference of decision makers became an important factor influencing decision results,especially in the stochastic multi-criteria decision-making problems which contained many uncertainties.Prospect theory offered a new way in solving the uncertain decisionmaking problems.In this paper,a novel method for multi-stage stochastic multi-criteria decision-making concerning the prospect theory is proposed.Specifically,the concept of dynamic reference point concerning developing speed is introduced to determine the dynamic prospect values of alternatives.Additionally,a programming model is constructed to calculate the weights of criteria in each stage.Moreover,a model for evaluating the ranges of dynamic prospect values is constructed to reflect the fluctuations of alternative performances.Finally,a case is conducted to verify the results of the above approach,which can reflect the decision maker's risk preference and improve the discrimination of alternatives.