Effects of uncertainty in related elements to load forecasting results
Hongli Cheng · Electric Power · 2005
To analyze the uncertainty of each element on load forecasting result, the derivative of the forecasted load with respect to the corresponding element was used to describe the extent of its influence. On the basis of which, the range of the forecasted load was obtained. A new concept of sampled blind number was defined with its values expressed by the averaged values of the corresponding intervals. Sampled blind numbers were adopted to describe the uncertainties. According to the operation properties of blind numbers and the load forecasting results under various probable cases, the probability density function and the confidence interval of the forecasted load were worked out. The way to convert a high order sampled blind number into a low ordered one was also discussed. Two examples are given to show the application of the proposed method in detail showing its feasibility.