A Multi-mode Diagnostic System with Coupled Dynamic and Thermodynamic and Its Application in Rainstorm Forecast
MU Honghu · Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research · 2009
In this study,a new equation of divergence containing coupling forces between dynamic and thermodynamic is used to research and develop a diagnosis calculation scheme and a corresponding software system.The system adopts multiple products of numerical prediction models for calculating coupling fields between dynamic and thermodynamic about occurrence and maintenance of rainstorm and forming a multi-time effect diagnosis field.It contains barotropic non-equilibrium forcing and the coupling forcing of dynamic and thermodynamic,reflects the numerical characteristics of the excitation and maintenance of rainstorm,it also offers data support for exploring the mechanisms of excitation and maintenance of rainstorm and seeking forecaster indicators.The comprehensive analysis of multi-mode diagnostic fields is a practice of ensemble prediction which can improve the accuracy of prediction.Two cases of rainstorm in 2009 have been analyzed and the results show that the diagnostic fields of model products of T213 and T639 can accurately predict the beginning and end of rainstorm and have obvious index for rainstorm prediction.